The Monthly Operation Program (PMO) bulletin for the operational week that runs from April 12 to 18 presents a condition of stability in the Stored Energy (EAR) projections at the end of the month compared to previous revisions.
Three subsystems are expected to end the period with storage above 65%: the North, with 97%; the Northeast, with 75,6%, and the Southeast/Central-West, with 69,4%. The lowest percentage is expected to be seen in the South: 39,2%.
“The amount of water accumulated in hydroelectric reservoirs is already the result of the efforts of ONS in preserving water resources. We are analyzing all scenarios carefully and will indicate, if necessary, new adjustments in the operational policy that have this objective, considering that the wet season ended early”, said Elisa Bastos, Director of Corporate Affairs and Acting Director of Operations at ONS.
The estimates of inflow at the end of April maintain the pattern observed in all revisions: they are below average in all subsystems. The percentages of Natural Inflow Energy (ENA) expected for the end of the month are as follows: North, 79% of the Long-Term Average (LTA); Southeast/Central-West, 74% of the LTA; South, 56% of the LTA; and Northeast, 27% of the LTA.
The behavior of load demand presents a new pattern in the current review, with the prospect of a reduction in the National Interconnected System (SIN) and in two subsystems. The slowdown in the SIN is expected to reach 1,6% (80.336 MWmed).
The regions that may experience a contraction in load demand are the Southeast/Central-West, with 3,7% (45.219 MWmed), and the South, with 3% (13.518 MWmed). The age of cold fronts through these locations, with a reduction in average temperatures, is one of the factors impacting these numbers. The North and Northeast continue with an estimated acceleration: 6,4% (7.945 MWmed) and 2,7% (13.653 MWmed), respectively.
The Marginal Operating Cost (CMO) remains zero in the North and Northeast regions. For the Southeast/Central-West, the forecast is R$163,42, while in the South the value is R$173,26. The main factors that impacted the CMO values were the forecast of load reduction, considering the holidays, and the data from thermal plants declared by the agents.
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